Tracking the count in Tasmania

A big round of applause for counting, everyone

I’m going to use this post to update the distribution of preferences in Tasmania. This first version covers what we’ve seen in the first day of the distribution, and until it gets too unwieldy, I’ll keep updating this post through the week. Check back here later in the week as things become clearer.

Saturday, 1pm: In a dramatic and competitive count, Bass has been finalised, and with it, the election. George Razay has secured a spot in parliament, and did well enough off SFF preferences to leapfrog over both Labor candidates. He was elected in sixth position, with Jess Greene (ALP) taking the seventh spot and Geoff Lyons (ALP) missing out.

So here’s where we are, after a no confidence motion, a snap election and two weeks of counting: both major parties have ended up with the same number of seats that they held before the election.

Tasmania's next House of Assembly will have:

• 14 Liberal MPs

• 10 Labor MPs

• 5 Greens

• 1 Shooters, Fishers and Farmers member

• 5 independents.

When the lower house voted no confidence in Premier Jeremy Rockliff in June there were:

• 14 Liberals

• 10 Labor members

• 5 Greens

• 1 Jacqui Lambie Network members

• 5 independents.

Labor has retained two seats in all of the state's seven-member electorates, while the Liberal party has lost a seat in Franklin and gained one in Braddon.

Some of the people in the seats have changed, but the arithmetic to forming government remains the same.

The Tasmanian Electoral Commission is set to formally declare the elected MPs on Tuesday and return the writs to the Governor that afternoon.

The rest is up to parliament, and both Liberal leader Jeremy Rockliff and Labor leader Dean Winter are in talks with crossbenchers to form a minority government in Tasmania.

Independent Craig Garland has already ruled out offering the Liberal Party confidence or supply, and says he would vote no confidence in the Liberal Government if a motion was put to parliament again.

With the Liberals unwilling to work with the Greens, Mr Rockliff requires the support of four of the five remaining crossbenchers to remain in government.

If Mr Winter can rely on The Greens to back him into office, Labor needs two more votes to form government (counting Garland as a vote for Labor). Without the Greens backing them, Labor cannot govern.

Fri, end of day: We’ve ended the day with only one seat left in doubt: Bass. On Saturday morning Simon Wood will be formally excluded and distributed. That will push Rob Fairs over quota and so there’ll be a subsequent distribution to be done there. After that, the final exclusion of the election will be either Michal Frydrych (most likely) or George Razay (unlikely). The most likely final two candidates are Razay and Labor’s Geoff Lyons. Counting resumes at 8am.

Thurs, end of day: Ogilvie has come from behind to win the second Liberal spot in Clark, leaving Simon Behrakis defeated from parliament. The SFF continued to firm up in Lyons today and are now very likely to win. That will be confirmed by John Tucker’s exclusion in the morning.

Wed, end of day: Today we’ve seen a dramatic tightening in the race between Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie in Clark. That one will go all the way to the final distribution to know the winner. Today also clarified Labor MP Meg Brown’s re-election in Franklin, and did nothing to hurt Liberal Jacquie Petrusma’s position in the same seat. Bass remains diabolically hard to predict but we’re starting to approach some critical exclusions in the count.

Tues, end of day: The day started with the finalisation of first preference figures after the postal vote deadline, and then in the afternoon the TEC started distributing preferences and eliminating candidates. So far we’ve got a bit more of an understanding of the contest in Bass (but not enough to call it) and the distribution has locked in the re-election of a couple of Liberal members, but there are no big surprises.

Let’s step through the count seat-by-seat:

JUMP TO SEAT: Bass // Lyons // Franklin // Clark // Braddon

Bass (3 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 ??)

Sat, end of counting: Final order of election in Bass:

1. Bridget Archer (LIB)

2. Janie Finlay (ALP)

3. Michael Ferguson (LIB)

4. Cecily Rosol (GRN)

5. Rob Fairs (LIB)

6. George Razay (IND)

7. Jess Greene (ALP)

Sat 1pm: All over red rover. George Razay picked up 40% of the preferences from Frydrych (SFF), with 10% going to Labor's Jess Greene 12% to Labor’s Geoff Lyons. 38% exhausted. In that final count Razay passed both Lyons and Greene to win the 6th seat. Greene has been elected 7 and Lyons has missed out.

Fri, end of counting: Given its complexity, this count has been trudging along slower than the other seats but tomorrow it should wrap up around lunchtime. Today we’ve been able to simplify the contest significantly: Simon Wood has been defeated and so the Liberals have won exactly 14 seats in this election. The two most likely winners of the final seat from here are Labor (most likely Geoff Lyons) or George Razay. Razay did very well off Rebekah Pentland’s exclusion and that puts the SFF in a difficult spot.

This table shows you where Pentland’s votes went:

Wed, end of counting: The last few hours of the day have seen a slow procession of eliminations that don’t tell us much about the final seat.

Tomorrow will start with the exclusion of the final National which may tell us something about the race between (most likely) SFF, Razay, and the Libs to be one of the final candidates in the count. Rebekah Pentland is still in the mix as well with 2,457 votes. The race to be the other final candidate in the count is most likely between two ALP candidates and a Green, with Labor more likely at this stage. But this one remains diabolically complicated.

Wed 2pm: The exclusion of the last placed Liberal Sarah Quaile has pushed Michael Ferguson over the finish line (by two votes!) so he is third elected in Bass. Julie Sladden has dropped back from 5th to 6th on the Liberal ticket and — barring something truly weird happening with preferences from others — will be excluded next.

Preferences from The Greens’ lower-placing candidates have flown more strongly to candidates other than their lead candidate Cecily Rosol, which helps them keep alive their hope of clinching that last spot. Lots would still need to go well for them, but it starts with keeping Rosol short of a quota to enable a colleague to soak up more preferences and climb the rankings.

Here’s the standings as of Count 29, which distributed Quaile’s votes.

Tues, end of counting: The single biggest thing to happen in Bass today was the TEC’s first job: distribute Bridget Archer’s surplus. 11% of her votes have leaked to candidates outside the Liberal ticket. That’s above average but it certainly could’ve been worse.

That leakage brings the Liberal ticket down from 3.34 to 3.28 quota, and they’ve slipped behind the SFF in the race for the final seat.

Here’s how the groups currently stand. The chart below shows you the quotas currently with each group in the count. The first six quotas are the full quotas electing three Liberals, two Labor members, and one Green. The battle is for seventh.

The horizontal lines on each column show you that groups first preference vote, so you can see how they’ve gained or lost through the count.

You can see how much Bridget Archer’s leakage has pulled her ticket down, and the SFF have now pulled ahead of the Liberals. But this is a simplification of the count for illustration and there’s a lot of counting still to be done.

Hare-Clark is about candidates, not parties, and so we need to track the individual candidates votes too. Here’s the same chart as above, split into individuals:

Archer’s surplus has flown most strongly to Michael Ferguson and Rob Fairs and both of them will be formally elected later in the count. The Liberals will be hoping that Simon Wood collects more preferences than Rob Fairs, pushing him above candidates including the SFF’s Michal Frydrych. Fairs doesn’t need the votes at this point but if he soaks too many up, it makes it harder for Woods to be re-elected.

A lot of counting still to be done here!

JUMP TO SEAT: Bass // Lyons // Franklin // Clark // Braddon

Lyons (3 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 SFF)

Fri 2:10pm: The count has concluded. Final order of election:

1. Guy Barnett (LIB)

2. Jane Howlett (LIB)

3. Tabatha Badger (GRN)

4. Jen Butler (ALP)

5. Brian Mitchell (ALP)

6. Mark Shelton (LIB)

7. Carlo Di Falco (SFF)

Fri morning: It had firmed up to a near-certainty yesterday afternoon, and the exclusion of John Tucker (NAT) has locked in Carlo Di Falco’s election. He will be the first member of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party to sit in state parliament.

Thurs, 2pm: Di Falco continues to make modest but steady gains through the count and it’s getting very hard to see how the Liberals can come back from here. Stephanie Cameron would need to do very well off the remaining Liberal preferences to stay in the contest. Her window looks like it is closing.

Wednesday, end of counting: Since Jenner’s elimination, Angela Offord has been eliminated as wel as Green Isabel Shapcott and Labor’s Edwin Batt. There are a few more eliminations to occur tomorrow before we see where National John Tucker’s votes go.

Relative to the Liberal Party, the SFF has done relatively well off Nationals exclusions in Lyons to date, but compared to Tucker they’ve all been fairly small numbers of votes. Nothing we’ve seen has changed Carlo Di Falco’s frontrunner status here.

Wed 3:20pm: ex-JLN member Andrew Jenner has been excluded (and thus, officially defeated). More than a third of his vote leaked out of the Nationals ticket. After John Tucker (63.7% of preferences), votes went to The Greens (11.6%), Labor (8.1%), Liberals (6.6%), SFF (4.7%).

Tues, end of counting: This is the other seat where there’s doubt over which party has won the final seat. It’s been a fairly uneventful day in Lyons

The SFF remain well placed here and they’ve had a more beneficial flow of preferences today than their opponents.

The day ended with former SFF member Phillip Bigg being excluded, and while there was a stronger flow of preferences to the SFF than the Liberals, he didn’t enough votes to make much of a difference. The SFF lead over the Liberals gained by … 0.01 quotas.

As you can see from the candidates chart below, we’re in for a long set of exclusions here that’s going to take a while before we get to the most interesting ones. The Greens will be excluded one by one, pushing up Tabatha Badger’s vote and getting her over the line. It will be interesting to see where preferences go once Nationals Andrew Jenner and John Tucker are excluded.

JUMP TO SEAT: Bass // Lyons // Franklin // Clark // Braddon

Franklin (2 Lib, 2 Labor, 1 Green, 1 George, 1 O’Byrne)

The count in Franklin has now concluded. Final order of election:

1. Peter George (IND)

2. Eric Abetz (LIB)

3. Rosalie Woodruff (GRN)

4. David O’Byrne (IND)

5. Dean Winter (ALP)

6. Jacquie Petrusma (LIB)

7. Meg Brown (ALP)

Thurs, 2pm: The exclusion of Liberal candidates has now confirmed that Jacquie Petrusma will finish ahead of Nic Street and so she has been re-elected.

David O’Byrne has secured re-election fourth, after the exclusion of the final Peter George candidate. That means he crossed the finish line before Labor leader Dean Winter. Three of the first four elected in Franklin are non-major party candidates, and the opposition leader is fifth elected in his own seat. Extraordinary!

Wed, end of counting: Counting this afternoon has confirmed Meg Brown will be elected and Jess Munday has been unsuccessful. The gap between the two has remained steady at about 1,000 and there is only one more Labor candidate to exclude. The TEC has stopped at a tantalising moment: the distribution of Liberal Natasha Miller. We’ll see in the morning if that’s enough to lock in Petrusma for the second Liberal seat there (she is clearly the favourite).

Wed 3:20pm: Rosalie Woodruff has been officially elected.

Tuesday, end of counting: The first order of business was to distribute Peter George’s surplus

Eric Abetz — who fell just 17 votes short of a quota on first preferences — picked up 19 votes worth of preferences from Peter George, pushing him over the finish line. (those votes that have had a part in electing both George and Abetz now have an eensy weensy tiny little value and will presumably cause some kind of electoral singularity).

The only doubt in this seat is intra-party battles: will Meg Brown or Jess Munday win the last Labor seat? Will Jacquie Petrusma or Nic Street win the last Liberal one? The former are favoured in both and their relative positions didn’t shift much today.

JUMP TO SEAT: Bass // Lyons // Franklin // Clark // Braddon

Clark (2 Liberals, 2 Labor, 2 Green, 1 Johnston)

The count in Clark has now concluded. Final order of election:

1. Kristie Johnston (IND)

2. Vica Bayley (Greens)

3. Ella Haddad (ALP)

4. Josh Willie (ALP)

5. Helen Burnet (Greens)

6. Marcus Vermey (Lib)

7. Madeleine Ogilvie (Lib)

Thurs: Elise Archer’s preferences broke slightly in favour of Ogilvie, but slightly was all Ogilvie needed. She has been elected with a margin over Simon Behrakis by just 180 votes, after starting 670 votes behind him on preferences.

Wed, end of counting: Behrakis’ lead over Ogilvie has grown by a tiny amount, to 117 votes. All the action since 3pm has been in the Labor and Greens tickets, with lower placing candidates eliminated. We’re waiting on Elise Archer’s elimination for clarity. Hers will be the final distribution so strap in.

Wed 2:50pm: The preferences of Di Florio (Lib) went roughly 30% Behrakis, 28% Ogilvie, 34% Vermey.

Behrakis is now 108 votes ahead of Ogilvie. Given Elise Archer has ~3,200 votes, we’ll be waiting a while longer on this one.

Wed 2pm: The race between Behrakis and Ogilvie has tightened quite dramatically. Ogilvie has picked up nearly half of Jessica Barnett’s preferences and the two sitting MPs are now just 86 votes apart.

Here’s the full detail of the current count and Barnett’s distribution:

Tues, end of counting: The only doubt in Clark right now is over who will be the final Liberal MP elected. It’s a race between Simon Behrakis and Madeleine Ogilvie, with Behrakis currently leading. Today’s counting hasn’t resolved much on that one.

But we did, for the first time, get to see the second preferences of Kristie Johnston voters. That’s because she has achieved more than one quota in this election. Her surplus flowed mainly toward The Greens (40%), Elise Archer (28%), and Labor (18%).

The next candidate due to be excluded tomorrow morning is Liberal David Wan.

JUMP TO SEAT: Bass // Lyons // Franklin // Clark // Braddon

Braddon (4 Liberals, 2 Labor, 1 Garland)

Fri 6pm: The count has now concluded. Final order of election:

1. Jeremy Rockliff (LIB)

2. Gavin Pearce (LIB)

3. Craig Garland (IND)

4. Felix Ellis (LIB)

5. Anita Dow (ALP)

6. Roger Jaensch (LIB)

7. Shane Broad (ALP)

Wed, end of counting: No major updates in this fairly straightforward count, although this afternoon Miriam Beswick was formally excluded and thus defeated.

I won’t keep updating the Braddon count unless something changes.

Tues, end of counting: Braddon began with the now customary transfer of Premier Jeremy Rockliff’s ginormous surplus. Gavin Pearce has picked up 34% of it, pushing him over a quota, so he is formally elected. 28% of the surplus went to Felix Ellis, shoring him up so he won't be caught from here and will be elected as well.

There was a relatively modest leakage from Rockliff - 5.9% - it’s noticeable but doesn’t really matter given how close the party is to four quotas.

While there are lots of exclusions to do, today’s counting has resolved any lingering doubt over the seven MPs elected, so following the count is an academic exercise at this point.